FIRE BOWA

Fun with Numbers...

Let's just take a look at how the Phillies linrup has performed this season, with the aid of a...wait for it...CHART!

Player Pos PA's EQA RARP
M. Lieberthal C 424 .248 9.7
J. Thome 1B 502 .328 43.6
P.Polanco 2B 399 .249 7.1
J. Rollins SS 559 .263 19.6
D. Bell 3B 457 .278 17.5
P. The Bat LF 423 .285 15.4
M. Byrd CF 316 .207 -9.2
B. Abreu RF 553 .325 48.1

Bench
C. Utley IF 221 .265 6.1
D. Godhesucks OF 146 .198 -6.2
T. Pratt C 110 .219 -0.7
T. Perez IF 152 .228 -2.2
J. Micahels OF 195 .245 -0.6
R. Ledee OF 145 .304 8.1
S. Wooten 1B 53 .155 -4.5
L.Collier OF 26 .281 0.8

So what does this say? Well the Phillies really only have two impact (for their position) hitters in their lineup. It is zero surprise that those two hitters are Bobby Abreu and Jim Thome. It may surprise you that Abreu has probably been team MVP instead of Thome, but then again just a month ago the reverse was true. Burrell, Bell, and Rollins have all had solid, average-to-slightly-above-average seasons. Following his career year, Placido Polanco seems to have predictably reverted back to Polancodom, while Mike Lieberthal has experienced a tough season, one that was forseen by yours truly. Marlon Byrd has been awful, something I must say I didn't see coming.

However, even with Byrd, the Phillies still have had a solidly above average lineup. Whatever problem they have had with position players seems to center around the bench. With the exception of the now departed Ricky Ledee, only Chase Utley has been a positive contributore. Well, unless you want to put much stock in Lou Collier's 26 at bats of 1 run above repalcement level. Of the players still on the team, their bench is a combined 7.3 runs below repalcement level and 41.1 runs below average. In fact their bench as negated the starting lineup, being farther below average than the starting linuep (Burrel included) has been above average, 41.1 to 33.1. Of course add Ledee and things even out a little more, but you get the point. The Phillies bench has been brutal this season.

There are a few reasons for this. Some, like Todd Pratt and Jason Michaels, have simply underperformed and could reasonably be expected to be better offesnively from here on out. The biggest reason for the lack of productivity from the bench is picking crappy players. Letting Doug Glanville and Tomas Perez get 146 and 152 PA's, respectively, is just dumb. This is partly Bowa's fault for writing them into the lineup (Glanville in LF from time to time!) and Ed Wade's fault for putting those players on the bench. Earlier this season I said that Glanville has his uses so long as he gets under 100 PA's. If he should get over that number he really becomes a huge detriment to the team.. Well, this season he isnt' fielding well and may be the worst player with 150 PA's this season. How bad has he been? So bad that it makes putting Marlon Byrd and his .207 EQA in CF everyday a good idea. There were better OF options on the free agent market this past offseason and there will be better OF options next season. I guess what I am saying is that the decision to being Glanville back or not will be an intelligence test for Ed Wade. Perez can play many positions but can't hit, no surprise there. Shawn Wooten serves little purpose now and served little purpose when he was signed. Luckily he has spent most of the year in AAA.

The difference between the Phillies bench and a bench of all replacement level players would be about a win. The difference between the Phillies bench and a bench of all average players would be about 4 wins. While I realize that stocking a bench with League average players is very unrealistic (if they were average wouldn't they be regulars?) and something only the Yankees can afford, one in between might just gain the Phillies a few wins in 2005.

Upon further review...

Before I get into my post I want to talk about something non baseball related. I try not to talk about such things because, well, my expertise seems to fizzle out after baseball and medieval England and I for one am not someone who likes to hear opinions from people who don't really know what they are talking about. I guess I am a dick like that.

Anways, my latest job is yet another sales post. Again it has great earning potential. If I work hard at it i coudl theoretically make over $1000 a week with a chance to move into management in just a few months. And yet I am not excited by it. Maybe it is the long hours (78?) or maybe it is just that I hate sales. I think a combination of the two, but I am not sure it is the thours by themselves. If I worked for say for Phillies, I wouldn't mind putting those hours in, I would probably enjoy most of the work AND it would be a career. This will not be a career, I AM going back to school in a year and I guess it is that reason alone that I am not excited about putting 60-70 or more hours a week simply to make money.

What I do love is baseball. And while I would like to think that I know as much about what is going on in baseball today as the next person, it is baseball hsitory that I really enjoy and even somewhat excel at. I obviously don't know as much as a number of professionals and others on baseball primer, but there is rarely a player I haven't heard of and it is an area I could seriously spend 8 hours of my day on. Just doing the preliminary work on this All-Time team project I am doing is fun, even though it can be very tedious at times. I don't mind because I see the end product as something I can be proud of, something that I really want to come to a fruitition. In other words it is much better than being in management for the sales division of a Fortune 500 company..

Well I will no longer subject you to my ranting and instead get back to baseball. Just a few days ago I went over some of the near misses on my Philadelphia Phillies All-Time 40 man roster (I have redone the list of names so that you can click on them and see taht players BP player card, included are that player's traditional and advanced statictics). One of the near misses was current Phillie coach and blog lighting rod, Larry Bowa. While thinking about this a little more I realized that the man I actually put on the team instead of Bowa was not any of the three SS's that I compared him to but deadball era 2B Otto Knabe. All three of those players still rank above Bowa in my book and all three made the team, Bowa is the fourth best SS in Phillies history in my opinion. However, Bowa could still have gotten one of the three spots on the roster that were not position specific, and he (along with 1B Dolph Camilli) lost out to OF Greg Luzinksi, 3B Willie Jones, and 2B Otto Knabe. I want to take a deeper look at these five players to see who really desreves this spot. To put it another way I want to use this post to think aloud about the final three roster spots for this greatest of Phillies teams.

To begin with I would like to retract a statement that I made. When talking about Larry Bowa, I said "when making a list of the top 50 SS's of All-Time I would probably rank Bo above those other three guys". I don't know why I said this as the only player I might actually rank below Bowa is Granny Hamner. For some reason I, from time to time, get Larry Bowa the player and Bob Boone the player mixed up and I don't know why. Bob Boone is arguably one of the 25 best catchers of all time and was a defensive wizard. Larry Bowa is one of the 50 best SS's of All-Time and while he was not bad with the glove he wasn't a defensive wizard. So on with the comparison.

Name YRS REG WS WARP1 4 WS 4WARP RANK
Otto Knabe 07-13 108 49.1 (18,16,15,14) (8.9,8.9,8.0,7.5) 118
Larry Bowa 70-81 151 48.1 (22,16,15,15) (7.3,4.9,4.9,4.6) 44
D. Camilli 34-37 71 24.5 (25,22,15,10) (9.6,9.1,4.0,1.8) 29
G. Luzinski 72-80 190 43.6 (30,28,27,23) (7.7,7.3,7.2,5.3) 35
Willie Jones 49-58 179 ???? (25,22,22,16) ??????????????? 65

By taking a look at the last column you can see why I questioned my decision to put Knabe on the team instead of Bowa. The RANK column is that player's ranking at his position by Bill James in the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, or simply the most enjoyable read I have ever experienced. Knabe doesn't even make James' top 100 2B, both he and Bowa spend the prime of their careers in Philly, Bowa is one of the 50 best at his position ever, how could Knabe make the team over Bowa? Is James that wrong?

Before I get into why I picked Knabe over Bowa, I want to cover the other three on this list. Those question makrs next to Willie "Puddin Head" Jones are because for soem reason Baseball Prospectus doesn't have a player card for Jones, and I don't know where else to get WARP numbers since they are prospectus numbers.

By Win Shares, Luzinski looks liek the best player here, by WARP, it looks to be Camilli, thanks to monster seasons in '36 and '37. But Jones even has better Win Shares numbers than Camilli. What it came down to here was that I didn't want a 3rd 1B, since first sackers aren't very flexible. So I took the outfielder and the 3rd baseman. As for Camilli, his best years were with the Dodgers, and his first two years in Philly weren't very memorable as he was in the process of losin ghis MLB cherry at the time, though he did lead the team in HR's in each of his four seasons with the club. He does rank above Rose in my book.

So getting back to Knabe and Bowa, the big difference between the two is the WARP1 totals. Bowa played longer, both in his career and with the Phillies, and had essentially the same peak according to Win Shares. According to WARP1, however, Knabe's seven seasons as a regular were more valuable than Bowa's 12 seasons in total value. Knabe's four best seasons were each better than Bowa's best. It is this that caused me to put my wieght behind Knabe as the last player on the roster.

In retrospect though, I think the problem may be with WARP1. See, WARP1 is not timeline adjusted, in that it doesn't take inot account that baseball today is more competitive than baseball in the 1960's was, baseball in the 1960's was more competitive than baseball in the 30's, etc,. etc. There are many reasons for this like the aceptance of Black, Latino, and now Asian players into Major League Baseball, the development of the minor leagues into a system that funnels talent into the Majors instead of competing against them, and the fact that there are more people in baseball playing countries per Major League team than there were at any other point in history, among others. All of this is just a long way of saying that the competition that Otto Knabe was playing against wasn't as strong as the competition that Larry Bowa was playing against.

I knew this of course and picked WARP1 anyway. The next alternative, WARP3 adjsuts for this. I also knew that. I decided to use WARP1 because in thoery I wanted all eras to be as equally represented as possible. Otherwise I would have picked next to no one from the years 1901-1920, and over half of the players on these teams would have been from the last 25-30 years or so. I didn't want that. I wanted the project to be as much about learning who some of the better players of a fan's favorite franchise were as it was a vehicle to allow fans to argue who was better than whom.

But Knabe's WARP1 totals almost look too good to be true. I will admit here that I don't know an awful lot about Otto Knabe, but his best years look like MVP level seasons according to WARP1, while his Win Shares numbers show Knabe as a guy who was a solid starter for a few seasons. Big difference. So what are Bowa and Knabe's WARP3 (a stat that has a timeline adjsutement) totals? Well here is another chart.

name WARP3 Top 4
Knabe 30.1 (6.1,5.8,5.24.6)
Bowa 42.5 (6.8,4.5,4.3,4.2)

Thsi is a big adjsutment. Adjusting from WARP1 to WARP3, Knabe loses about 19 wins (!!!) and Bowa loses about 5 and a half. Why is Knabe look so much worse in WARP3 as opposed to WARP1? Well, replacement level was probably very low in the first few decades of this century because there were no minor league systems. A few players were owned by a Major League while playing in the minor leagues, but they were usually farmed out for an entire season. The gap between the best and the worse players was large back then simply because Major League Baseball had yet to develop a system to make sure the best players would be playing in their respective leagues. So in short there would be many players with high WARP totals, many players with low WARP totals, and fewer players in between.

The above chart shows the two players as very even once again. Per season as a regular, Bowa was worth 12.6 WS and 3.5 WARP, Knabe 15.4 and 4.3. Bowa's peak is a little better according to Win Shares, Knabe's a little better according to WARP, though both are very close. When you figure that Bowa played an extra five season, therefore part of the decline phase of his career, the averages per year look more even. Bowa's career is more highly regarded because he played significantly longer, but they were both equally as good at their best for the Phillies.

My pick now with this information? Well, I am not sure I would want four players at any one position and Bowa would be the fourth shortstop. At the same time, Knabe is a player that most Phillie fans know nothing about, in the sense that that can be a tie breaker, advantage Knabe. They were both about as good at their best as the other one. However, Bowa spent five more seasons in the city of bortherly love than did Knabe. That is a greater tie breaker than my strange desire to preach about Otto Knabe. The new pick is Bowa, unless of course he runs up against Camilli, which he does. So the new pick is actually Camilli with Bowa yet again the 25th man. I am tricky like that.

That don't impress me much...

Ugh. Sorry but the quote above is the best one I could come up with. Should I have my male membership card revoked for this?

Before I get into the meat of this article, I would like to mention that they Phillies just swept the Brewers today with a 9-6 extra inning win. Of course it is way too little, way too late, but I guess one must take their victories wherever they happen to snatch them. It has been nice, however, to see Russell Branyan get regular playing time in Milwaukee. Branyan, a former power prospect, has definite weaknesses in that he isn't a great defenisve player, may never get within 100 points of a batting title again (if he ever has before) and could break Bobby Bonds strikeout record if he ever played a full season. But boy, can that kid mash. Sure, he may not be good enough to be a regular on a team with legitmate pennant hopes, but for a team like Milwaukee, one that has been found wanting where the long ball is concerned, he fits in very nicely at 3B. He could be helping a contender off the bench, but way too many teams focus on what he can't do (make consistent contact) instead of what he can do (hit the ball a long way). Kudos to Brewers GM Doug Melvin for taking a chance on Branyan.

One thing I have been working on this summer, since I haven't actually been working, is trying to compile the all-time teams of every single Major League club. It is a project I have always been interested in doing, due to my lack of a real life I suppose, and would love if one day it could become a book. But for now every little step counts.

You may remember (probably not) that I went over my starting outfield for the Phillies, but things have changed since then as I have now taken a deeper look at the question. Since today I started by compiling Win Shares and WARP1 for all of the position player candidates for the Philadelphia Nationals, I though I would share them with you. Hey, it beats yet another Glanville/Bowa/Wade rant does it not?

First a few ground rules. I am trying to come up with 40 man rosters that could theorictally be used to play a season. Each 40 man will include 24 position players and 16 pitchers, this give each team 9-10 position players and 5-6 pitchers (depending upon roster contruction) in the 'minors' in case they ever needed to play an acutal game. For the position players I have made it a requirement for any candidate to have spent four years as a regular (defined very loosely as 350 PA's or playing the most time at a given position) on any of the 16 original clubs and 3 years on any of the non 1990's expansion teams (teams entering MLB from 1961-1977) since 1901. I don't really want to deal with 19th century baseball right now as it was such a period of change, with some of the period's best players played with team's that went up before the turn of the century. None of the four most recent expansion teams are even on my radar right now.

I also am looking mostly at peak value with that team. For instance while I realize that Willie Mays was a better player than anyone else you happened to play CF for the Mets, he wasn't very good as a met. On the same token, Mark Mcgwire 5+ years as a Cardinal are worth more than Jim Bottomley's entire career because McGwire had the higher peak and it isn't all that close. These two rules will come into play as I pick my All-Time Phillies.

The Breakdown for the 24 position players are as follows
4 Catchers
2 of every single infield position
1 extra middle infielder
8 Outfielders, of which 3 must be able to handle CF and
3 other players who can play any position

So the position players for my current Phillies All-Time 40 man roster are as follows...

Darren Daulton C
Bob Boone C
Andy Seminick C
Mike Liberthal C
Dick Allen 1B/3B
John Kruk 1B
Juan Samuel 2B
Tony Taylor 2B
Dave Bancroft SS
Otto knabe 2B (other)
Granny Hamner SS/2B
Dick Bartell MI (SS)
Mike Schmidt 3B (did you think I was going to put Rick Schu on the squad?)
Scott Rolen 3B
Puddin head Jones 3B (other)
Sherry Magee LF
Richie Ashburn CF
Bobby Abreu RF
Roy Thomas OF
Chuck Klein OF
Del Ennis OF
Johnny Callison OF
Cy Williams OF
Greg Luzinski OF (in that he can carry a glove out to the position; other)

The first player listed at each position is the guy I have earmarked for my starter right now. In case it si too much work to go back thorugh and look at them they are Daulton, Allen, Samuel, Bancroft, Schmidt, Magee, Ashburn, and Abreu. Those with other next to their names are the players who made it into the three extra open spots on the roster.

To go over why I picked wach of these players would actually take a very long time and would also be included in the book that I one day hope to write. Instead, today I wanted to go over a few of the players who just missed the cut. In particular those players that have very recognizable names. I could talk about why I feel that Cy Williams was a better choice than John Titus, but how many people when looking at this list went, "where the hell is John Titus, is this guy off his rocker?" Not many living people ever saw Titus play and those that have probably aren't even aware of the internet's existence, let alone the existence of my insignificant blog.

So here goes...

Pete Rose 1B
There is no doubt that Pete Rose was a great player. However I do not believe that he was a great Phillie. Rose spent five years as a regular on the Phillies, in those years his Win Share totals were 27. 17, 17, 17, and 7. To give you a point of reference Bill James, the creator of the metric, says that 30 WS is an MVP caliber season, 20 is an All-Star season, 15 makes for a solid regular, and 10 reveals either a bad everyday player or a good part time player. So Rose had one very good season (1979) and three slightly above average seasons (80-82), followed by a very bad year in 1983. The margin of error is at roughly 2 Win Shares, meaning that a season of 30 and a season of 32 could be roughly the same thing, but 3 Win Shares is usually a pretty sizable difference. All of which is just the long way to say that Rose had only one season in five as a Phillie (1979) in which he had a good arguemnt to be an All-Star. In comparison John Kruk, who took the backup 1B spot, had 3 such seasons in five. With 17, 25, 24, 25, and 7 in his five seasons, Kruk has the second, third, and fourth best seasons between them while being tied for the fifth. While I realize that Win Shares is far from the end all be all of this discussion, I think the disparity bewteen them is shown very aptly here. And Rose didn't even come in third, instead he actually came in fifth behind both Fred Luderus and Dolph Camilli.

Larry Bowa SS
As you may have guessed I don't like Larry Bowa. Acutally if you hadn't guessed that I don't like Larry Bowa, what with the title of this blog being FIRE BOWA, you have serious problems with reading comprehension, probably scored roughly a 350 on your SAT's and couldn't stop drooling even if it meant a night with Katie Holmes. However, even though I am not the biggest fan of Bo, he missed making the cut on his own merits, not because I don't like him.

This is the classic case of peak vs. career value. Since I am going for peak value here, Bowa gets left out. The weird thing here is that were i compiling a list of the 50 or so greatest shortstops ever I would rate Bowa above Bancroft, Bartell, and Hamner. But as far as a team is concerned below average to slightly below over a 15 year period isn't as valuable as being a star over a shorter period of time. To demonstrate this i will use WARP1 (or first order Wins Above Reaplcement at Position). It is an offshoot of RARP, which I use regularly, except that it is in wins instead of runs and factors fielding in to the equation. Here are the top four WARP1 scores for Bancroft, Bartell, Hamner, and Bowa.

Bancroft 9.3, 8.7, 8.3, 7.7
Bartell 11.2, 10.0, 7.6, 4.7
Hamner 7.9, 6.4, 5.6, 5.6
Bowa 7.3, 5.0, 4.9, 4.8

Bowa's best season wouldn't have been in the top four for Bancroft and would have been fourth for Bartell. It is the ninth best saeson in that chart, and his second best would only have made Bartell's top four. Clearly, on peak value, Bowa's time with the Phillies wasn't as valuable as the other three. Larry Bowa was an exellent defensive SS in his prime, but he couldn't hit at all. If he hadn't been around forever, hadn't had Schmidt and Carlton for teammates for most of that time, and hadn't been named manager in 2001, most wouldn't be looking for his name on that list.

Garry Maddox and Lenny Dysktra CF
The Phillies outfield is very interesting. It is very deep with more than a dozen players having very productive stays. Unlike many of their rivals, however, there is no Clemente, no Aaron, no Robinson in the bunch. Just a few borderline Hall of Famers, another player who will fit that bill when his career is done, and 11 good players. needless to say it was a very tough position and one that is very likely to change in the next few permutations of the squad.

Two of those on the outside looking in are the two gentleman who played centerfield for the last three Phillie pennant winners. Maddox spent nine seasons as the Phillies regular CFer (75-83) and may very well have been one of the 5-10 greatest defensive players ever to patrol the middle pasture. However, he wasn't much at the dish. He never slugged .500 in his career and only twice (75 &76) did he have OBP's over .340. It is this that keeps him off of the team, just behind Cy Williams as the 4th CFer.

Dykstra, on the other hand, is a different case. Nails was onlyu lsightly above average in the field during his time in Philly but was a wonderful hitter. That is he was a wonderful hitter in the seasons that he was healthy. Despite being a Phillie from 1989-1996, he only played in 100 games twice, in 1990 when he appeared in 149 games and 1993 when he was written into the scorecard 161 times. In those two years he as magnificent, tallying 35 and 32 WS, respectively. Those are MVP caliber seasons. Those are the seasons that make Phillie fans remember Nails as the best player on the 1993 pennant winners, which he actually was. However, Dykstra's tenure in the city of Brotherly Love had a few too many injuries, enough to keep him off of this team despite two of the best seasons any Phillie OFer has ever had.

Steve jeltz SS
Do I even need to make an argument here? Probably the most convincing piece of evidence that I made this team based on the relative merits of the players and not on how I feel about them is the exclusion of my All-Time favorite Phillie.

Looking for any more evidence of Jeltz greatness? Here it is. In four seasons as a 'regular' Steve Jeltz recorded 25 Win Shares. Remember earlier when I said that 10 is a poor season for an everyday player. Well if 10 is poor then what is 6.25?

New shit has come to light...

You what makes me really happy? Anytime I can quote The Big Lebowski and have it realte to the discussion. I know I am a simple man.

In my last post I covered the Phillies trade for Cincinati RHP Cory Lidle. Lidle so far has pitched like a 5th starter going five innings, allowing 2ER, with 4 K's and 3BB's in his lone start. Pretty decent actually, but of course he only went five innings. However, Lidle's ability to do his job aside I have done a 180 on this trade. Well at least a 110. Why? Well as stated above, new shit has come to light.

Just a few days ago (when my lazy ass should have written this post) I was made aware of the PTBNL while reading Chris Kahrl's Transaction Analysis on Baseball Prospectus. That player? RHP Elizardo Ramirez. The same Elizardo Ramirez that I named as the Phillies #7 prospect coming into this season, then came to pretty much the same conclusion in my mid season look (you will need to scroll down for both links in this sentence). Back then I stated that it would be interesting to see how Ramirez reacts in his first exposure to AA Ball, which incidentally came after his first exposure to MLB, go figure. Well he hasn't played well at AA. In 33.2 IP, he has struck out only 20 batters while walking 14. He has also allowed 51 hits for a robust WHIP of 1.93. All of this adds up to a 2-5 record and a 6.68 ERA. In other words he has struggled.

To his credit, however, he is still 21 and has been jerked around in the organization. Again I will state that I have absolutely no idea why they would bring a kid all the way from A Ball to the majors only to use him in 7 games over a one month span. Either the front office is incompetent or there is a serious lack of communication between the coaching staff and the front office, or both. He is also 21, an age that still makes one young in AA. For instance Ryan Howard (since called up to AAA) is 24.

There is little doubt that Ramirez stock has dropped this season, though that may have as much to do with the Phillies handling of him as it does his abilities. Coming into this season he has had exactly one non phenomenal year, 2003. In that year he still had great peripherals but allowed a few too many hits, something that can be out of his control. This season the hits are still coming at AA, but the peripherals aren't nearly as good. Next year will be a big season for him as he will try and get back on the prospect track.

I would still consider Ramirez intriguing despite all of this, which is why I hate that he is now a Cincinnati Red. It isnt' even that that he is in the same class as Cole Hamels or Gavin Floyd, he is not even close at this point. But the Phillies gave up an intriguing player to get a fifth starter at a point in the season that they were pretty out of the running. Sure they needed a 5th starter because Paul Abbot has been horrible when wearing Red this season, but they had other options. Amaury Telemaco for one. Anyone from their AAA staff for another, even if Clay COndrey, Robert Ellis, and Ed Yarnall hadn't been pitching lights out they could have filled in cheaply. If they hadn't made a trade for the next to useless (for them and humanity) Doug Jones they could have used Josh Hancock. Remember this team isn't going to the playoffs and really hasn't been on that path since they were swept by the Florida Marlins at the latest.

How would I expect them to get Cory Lidle you might ask? If Elizardo Ramirez was absolutely necessary to getting Cory Lidle I say dont' get Cory Lidle. Seriously, what is the benefit? Will he pitch that much better than Telemaco?

Ramirez may never face a Mjor League hitter again and Cory Lidle may pitch well for the Phillies, in that case nothing is lost, but nothing is really gained. But on the off chance that Ramirez regains his luster and begins to pitch well, becoming the Reds 3rd or 4th starter on the cheap for a few years, the Phillies would still only get two good months from a fungible starting pitcher that wont' help them get into the post season. Will it be worth it? You decide.

It is alright to trade decent prospects if the player youa re recieving will help you in the here and now. However, no matter how well Cory Lidle pitches I cant' see him helping the Phillies any, unless 2nd place is their stated goal.

It's like rai-eee-ain on your wedding day...

I know, I know I quoted Alanis Morisette, so sue me (by the way that isn't ironic that is simply bad luck, dammit!). But after winning 5 of six out on the West Coast against two teams competing for playoff spots, the Phillies get the news that they will be without their third best hitter. Pat the Bat will no longer be able to swing his kinsman this season. Or at least he won't be able to in a Phillies uniform what he does on his free time is his own business. Burrell's wrist injury will sideline him for the rest of the season and the playoffs, should the Phillies get there.

How good has Burrell been? HE is currently hitting .263/.374/.459 with 18 HR's and 68 RBI's in 423 PA's, good for a .285 EQA. The league average Eqa is .260, so Burrell is certannly an above average hitter. However, the average LF Eqa is .283, meaing that Burrell is roughly an average LFer (actually he has been 1 run above average this season).

That isn't a bad thing. Being average brings with it a stigma of mediocrity, but in baseball being average has value. First of all it means that 15 other teams don't have LFers as good as Pat Burrell on their roster. In fact Burell is 14th in MLB in RARP (rusn above replacement at position). He has been roughly as good as Luis Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Cliff Floyd this year.

However, there aren't only 30 LFers in baseball that will get significant playing time. Most of those players who aren't near average don't see 500 PA's in a season. This is born out by the fact that only two players ranking worse than Burrell in RARP have 400 PA's going into tonight, Rondell White and Geoff Jenkins. There are probably 40-45 players that will amass 400 PA's this season and will have LF as their primary position. Burrell is 14th out of those 40+ LFers. In other words he is still a valuable playe,, maybe not worth $11mil, but definitely a valuable player.

Another reason that a league average player has more value than you would think is that very few teams can replace a league average player with another league average player. To wit, Burrell replacements since his injury have been Dougie the Horrible and Lou Collier. Glanville you should be familiar with since I have been ranting about him since his ill-fated appearance in camp. Collier was just called up from AAA Scranton where he is hitting .313/.387/.517. Good numbers to be sure, but Collier is 30 years old with a .240/.314/.338 career line in a littel over 750 PA's, a good enough number to say that he won't be a league average LFer.

Maybe this is Collier's year, you say? Well that is possible. Many players have had one good season in a career of mediocrity and it is possible that this season is the year that Collier is an adequate player. It is not likely but it is possible and certainly worth a looksee, expecially if the alternative is Glanville. However, Collier .313/.387/.517 is good for only a .264 MjEqa, roughly a league average performance. A league average hitter is not a league average LFer, as Burrell shows.

The Phillies do have another option, however, and that option is Jason Michaels. Earlier this season I complained about the Phillies sending Marlon Byrd down and trying to get to the postseason with a Michaels/Ledee platoon in center. This was based more on the fact that neither player, especially Michaels, could handle CF. However with an opening in LF I believe that Michaels is the man to fill this position. His current numbers aren't too inspiring, .240/.374/.322, good for a .252 Eqa, but he hit .330 last season and has a career line of .276/.378/.446/.285.

Jason Michaels problem this season has been power, well that and average. However, batting average is one of the most valatile stats in baseball, and in 120 AB's a few balls that don't drop in take take a huge toll on your BA. His career ISO is .170, this season it is .82. Despite his power outage this season it is my belief that Micahels, if given playing time, can rediscover his power and hit more like the guy in 02 and 03 than this year. It si better than a 30 year old player with a career .231 Eqa who is playing well at AAA or a guy who is hitting owrse than a number of pitchers.

Also, Michaels is 2 years younger than Collier and almost certain to be a part of the team next saeson. now might be the time to see what he can do in a full-time role. And he has my birthday. MY BIRTHDAY, how can I NOT root for this guy? Whichever way this plays out may not matter as I am even more steadfast in my conviction that the Phightin's will be on the outside looking in when October comes around than I was when I posted last time.

Before I close out I want to discuss the Phillies latest trade...

Phillies trade LHP Joe Wilson, OF Javon Moran, and PTBNL to the Cincinati Reds for RHP Cory Lidle

My first reaction to this trade was that Lidle was acquired to fill in for Kevin Millwood. However, Vicente Padilla wil come off of the DL tomorrow so it will be he that will start in Millwood's stead. No, Lidle was acquired to replace Paul Abbot.

Lidle isn't what I would call good, at least not anymore. In Cincinnati this season he was 7-10 with a 5.32 ERA, 93 K's and 44BB's in 149 IP, solidly below average. However, Abbot was 1-6 with a 6.24 ERA in 10 starts for the Phillies. Even worse, Abbot has 49 IP in those 10 starts. So he isn't even averaging 5IP per start. Obviously an upgrade was needed and Lidle is that. He isn't good but he is better than Abbot and he pitches deeper into games. This trade won't win any pennants but it does address a need. And if you aim low you, low is what you get..

How good are the minor leaguers that the Phillies gave up? I mean if they only got the very definition of a #5 starter, they didn't give up anything of value did they? Well, let's see...

Javon Moran OF Age: 22 Low A Lakewood
.285/.340/.385, 2HR, 38RBI, 17SB's, 421 AB's

Moran was drafted out of Auburn University in the 5th round of the 2003 draft. Last season he hit .284/.326/.356 in short season ball. He is a small, speedy type (49 SB's in two saesons so far) without much power, so he will need to get on base to be effective and so far he hasn't shown much in that regard. his ISODIS has improved from . 042 last season to .055 this season, but that is qutie miniscule. Throw in the fact that he is 22 adn in low A, meaning that he must progress quickly to be any more than a bench player, and it becomes clear Moran isnt' too much to give up. Toolsy guys who have yet to light A Ball afire at the age of 22 are just the type of guys you throw into trades for 5th starters.

Joe Wilson LHP Age 21 Low A Lakewood
4-7, 3.64 ERA, 93 IP, 89 K's, 49 BB's, 4 HR allowed

Wilson was drafted out of the University of Maryland-Baltimore County in the 13th round of teh 2003 draft. He had a good season last year, going 5-3 with a 2.15 ERA and 72 K's in 67 IP, splitting his time between rookie and short season ball. In his career, Wilson has average a K an Inning (good thing), but is averaging nearly 5 BB's per 9 this season in Low A (bad thing). I don't have a scouting report on him so I can't tell you what he throws, but he certianly LOOKS like a generic A-ball arm. Again, not too much to give up for Lidle seeing as how the chances that he puts it together and becomesa starter at the big league level aren't too good.

I have no clue who the Player To Be Named Later is, but i doubt it is anyone of consequence, and if it is I will be back here ranting about it. That I can tell you. Hey, maybe it is Doug Glanville!!! Pretty Please!!!! Well, I guess we can dream.

Overall, this is exactly the type of trade that Ed Wade seems to make mid season. It fills a hole that needs to be filled, they don't give up too much, but they also dont' really get any better. I guess Wade loves to be stuck in neutral, not that there is anything better available. As an aside, the Phillies gave up less to get Lidle than they did to get Todd Jones, and there is a good chance that Lidle will pitch more innings for the Phils than Jones will. Bravo.

The Phillies have now won four in a row, including a sweep of the Padres, two extra inning victories, and a win against Eric Gagne. And where has it gotten them? 4.5 games back (5 in the loss column) of the Braves and 3 back of the Cubs in the Wild Card. I am not sure that I can stress this enough, the Phillies are probably a 1/80 shot (at best) to make the playoffs. It just isn't happening no matter how much winning they do from here on out.

To wit, the Braves have 54 games left. Their current winning percentage is .565, should they play only .500 ball the rest of the way out (had they played .500 ball up to this point they would currently be 2.5 games behind the Phillies, a 7 game swing)), they would finish with 88 wins. For the Phillies to finish with 88 wins they would need to go 31-22 in their remaining 53 games. The Phils winning percentage is currently .523, they would need to play .584 ball the rest of the way out. They are currently only 5 games over .500 right now over 2/3 of a season, they would need to go 9 games over .500 in the final third to finish with 88 wins and that would only get them into a playoff with the Braves if the tomahawk choppers play .500 ball the rest of the way. There is usually no reason for a team that has only been 5 games over .500 over 109 games to suddenly go 9 games over .500 in the final 53.

And what if the Braves play as well as they have this season from here till the end of September (which is very likely by the way)? The Braves are on pace for 91.53 wins this season. Let's make this get easier for the Phightins and say they are on pace for 91 wins. The Phillies would need to go 34-19 the rest of the way out, a .641 winning percentage or roughly as good as the yankees have been, in order to tie teh Braves with 91 wins. 35-18 to take the division.. Over the course of a season a .641 winning percentage 103.8 wins. Anyone here want to contend that a team currently playing on an 85 win level can bump that up to a 104 win level? Didn't think so. Especially with this guy in the dugout and this guy on the playing field. Things might be better if their roles were switched, even the former hit like a girl during his career.

Hey, I hope that the Phillies win the NL East. While I have nothing against the braves and actually admire their success I am tired of them winning this division. However, I just don't see that happening. And even though they are only 3 games back in the Wild Card they are also in 4th place for that honor, behind the Cubs, Padres (1 game back), and the Giants (2 games back).

With this in mind it is no wonder that the Phillies didn't make any big deadline moves. Would it have been worth them giving up a future ace in Floyd or Hamels in order to get say Kenny Lofton or Kris Benson and maybe push them to 88 wins when they will probably need 92? I don't know if Ed Wade had this in mind but when keeping the bigger picture in mind I am glad he didn't mortgage the future for the right to chasing the wind this season. Had they been only 1 game out or better at the deadline we are talking about something different, but this season was a losing cause by the time July 31st came around. In fact with this in mind I am even more mad that they traded Anderson Machado, whom I believe should have taken Tomas Perez' role next season for about 1/6 of the cost, and Josh Hancock, who should have gotten every start that Paul Abbot or Brian Powell made and are going to make this season, for a corner outfielder than can't hit and a 36 year old biggot. Dammit, now I am mad, I am going to go break shit.

It is time to get through the final of four trade deadline installments so that I can get onto other topics. In parts I-III I went over the Mets pillaging of their farm system, Paul DePodesta making 'The Leap', and the trade that made my month, or at least week. Today I want to go over many of the smaller deals in cluding those madeby the the Yankees and Phillies. But before we get started I have just been informed that Doug Glanville is starting in LF today because Burrell has a minor wrist injury. DOUG FREAKIN' GLANVILLE!!!! It is as if Sir Cancer is trying to get fired now.

Phillies trade OF Rickey Ledee and RHP Alfredo Simon to the Giants for RHP Feliz Rodriguez
Phillies trade RHP Josh Hancock and SS Anderson Machado to the Reds for RHP Todd Jones and OF Brad Correll

Let's get one thing straight: these trades won't win the Phillies the division or get them the Wild Card. Not that they have much of a chance now anyway since they are 4.5 games out of the division and 4 games out of the WC coming into tonight's game, but even if they were close these are only minor deals.

Rodriguez is a player who just a few years ago was a big contributor in the Giants pen but he hasnt' been the same in 2003 and 2004. This season he has pitched in 54 games, 45.2 innings and has 33 K's and 19 BB's. Decent control but the K's aren't there like they used to be. He still has been superficially good with a nice 3.35 ERA. Jones has been roughly the same as Rodriguez thsi season, 54 games, 37/25 K/BB in 58.1 IP with a 3.70 ERA. Jones is 36, Rodriguez 31. Neither have much of a future in Philly even if they make next year's team. However, bullpen upgrade was a must for the Phillies with the team fading and Madsen/Wagner on the DL.

Brad Correl, the 23 year old prospect the Phillies obtained in the Reds deal is a guy who can only handle 1B or a corner OF spot while not having the bat to stay productive at those positions. There is only a very slim chance that he has a career, why you trade for a guy like that is beyond me, but what the hay.

The Rodriguez trade may be the one that looks bad for the Phillies since they gave up a guy who was contributing thsi season. Ricky Ledee is currently hitting .286/.387/.496 for the Phillies and now Giants but that is still only in 127 at bats. Ledee has a bat but he isnt' a CFer and the Phillies have Abreu and Burrell in the corner spots. Ledee is also a free agent at the end of the season so getting something for him now, with Jason Michaels and Marlon Byrd still around, is prudent. I am not sure as to why the Giants would do this trade as they just weakened their bullpen while getting an outfielder who isn't very good in CF and bats from the same side as teh Giants everyday RFer. And LF is obviously out of the question with the Giants.

The Jones trade is more problematic as the Phillies gave up two players that I happen to like. Earlier this yera I ranked Josh hancock as teh Phillies #9 prospect and around the All-Star break said that he hadn't really helped or hurt his value so far in 2004. He projects as a decent #5 starter or longman in the pen. He didn't have many places to pitch for the Phillies with Madsen, Hamels, and Flloyd all above him in the organizatrional queue but on a team like th Reds he should get his shot. Who knows maybe one day he will win 15 games.

Anderson Machado will not be a future star, no matter how many times he walks. Anyone who reads this site probably realizes I love OBP and guys who walk a lot, but Machado seems to have few offesnive skills outside of his plate discipline. Last season he hit .196/.306/.250 at AA and this season he is hitting .227/.337/.363. however he is a good baserunner and reports are that he is good defensively at 2B, SS, 3B. With Tomas Perez in line to get overpaid next season I have had visions of Machado doing Perez's job at a much cheaper price for the next three to four years, now he is a Cincinnati Red. While neither Machado or Hancock look to be the type of guys that playoff teams play everyday (or every fifth day as the case may be) they are too much to give up to get a homophobe 36 year old reliever who has had middling succes for half a decade now. Of all of Ed Wade's faults his biggest may be his old reliever fetish which has brought such luminaries as Ricky Bottalico, Jose Mesa, and Roberto Hernandez to the city of brotherly love.

As I have mentioned earlier on the day of the deadline I traveled to the Jersey swamps to see a soccer game. on the way there and the way back my brother and I listened to sports talk radio to get the latest on the deadline happenings. While we were still in range of Philadelphia we got to hear every single caller and every single host go over how Ed Wade is an incompetent dweeb who shouldnt' be in charge of a baseball team (as if the idiots who call into sports talk radio are the guys to do the job). Wade, of course, is the guy who gave up a utility infielder and a 5th starter for Milton, signed Thome, and oversaw the development of Pat Burrell and Chase Utley among others. He has built a team that is about to have its fourth consecutive non losing season, which in PHilly should be a reason to knight him, the man is no incompetent. Sure, he has that old reliever fetish and he has a habit for not making any moves at the deadline that acutally help the Phillies. Ed Wade is not a great GM nor is he a good one and maybe he should lose his job, but he is far from incompetent. Plus, with the Phillies where they currently stand it is probably a good thing that they didn't trade Madsen and Hamels for two months of Carlos Beltran or something stupid like that.

Yankees trade RHP/ENIGMA Jose Contreras to the White Sox for RHP/ENIGMA Estaben Loaiza.

After all of the Randy Johnson talk this was the Yankees only trade and it is a bit of a downer as the two teams traded disappointments. Before we get into teh realitve merits of Contreras and Loaiza I want to point soemthing out. The traditional sports media, in all of its wisdom, pegged Randy Johnson as theplayer the yankees needed mor than any other player ever, which is complete poppycock. Johnson is still a great pitcher for sure and he would have helped the Yankees immensely but the Yankees didn't need him. By October they will have Kevin Brown, Javy Vazquez, and Mike Mussina back in the rotation and a choice between El Duque, Loaiza, and Lieber. With their offense they should be fine.

Now that we have that out of the way, I think the Yankees won this trade. It seems as if they had given up on Contreras and wanted someone who could munch innings instead of a guy who might go 7IP with 1ER one day and 2IP with 7 ER the next. Contreras has great stuff but he has trouble against patient teams who lay off of the breakign stuff that he cant' keep in the strike zone. Teams like the Devil Rays and Tigers v.2003, who are filled with impatient hitters are easy for Big Jose, but teams like the Red Sox have killed him. In return the Yankees didnt' get a great pitcher. Loaiza was magnificent last season, winning twenty games and finishing second in the AL Cy Young voting, but he is back to being that guy with good stuff who lets up too many home runs. However, Loaiza is more likely to go 6IP every start and with as tired a bullpen as the Yankees have not having to go 7 IP on any given day is a plus.

For the White Sox they get a guy with Cy level stuff for a guy who will be a free agent after this year. However, they are also in a penannt chase, something they seem to have forgotten. Unless, of course, they are betting that their pitching instructors can get Contreras straightened out in time for them to catch the Twins. Fat chance.

The kicker in all of this is that Contreras is owed $17 mil in 2005 and 2006, whereas Loaiza is owed nothing. The Yankees did send $3mil with Contreras but they still cleared $14 million off of their books over the next two yeras. If (when?) the Yankees sign Carlos Beltran this offseason remember how White Sox GM Kenny Williams decided to give the Yankees, of all teams, $14 mil of payroll relief.

Padres trade RHP Jon Huber to the Mariners for PH Dave Hansen
Padres trade RHP Ismael Valdes to the Marlins for RHP Travis Chick

The Padres missed out on their number one target, Steve Finley. I guess the D-Backs liked Hill/Abercrombie/Murphy more than whatever the Padres could put together. Though, I highly doubt they chose the right package. Either way, maybe it was a good thing since Finley's major strength, home runs, would have been weakened considerably in Petco Park. Although with Jay Payton and Terrence Long getting playing time in CF, they probably needed to make a deal for Finley, Lofton, or whomever else was available.

That being said I like both of these deals. The Padres said they needed a LH pinch hitter and they got one. they almost traded Jake Gautreau to the Rangers for Brad Fullmer, but his DL stint got in the way of that. They made a better deal here. Huber is pitching well at High A Lake Elsinore ( does anyone recognize the name Elsinore, like from I don't know the greatest version of Hamlet ever!) but he was replaced in the other trade. Hansen gets on base more than Fullmer, can play 1B, OF, or even 3B in a pinch ulike Fullmer, and I like Gautreau more than I do Huber.

The other trade is another nice one, so long as Dennis Tankersly gets most of the departed Valdes' starts from here on out instead of Sterling 'I make a living by being on the DL' Hitchcock. Valdes had a 5.53 ERA at the time of the trade while pitching in one of baseball's most severe pitching parks. He simply has not been very good though as I mentioned prior to the season I still like the move to bring him in, 9-6 or no. Travis Chick is a decent prospect who will replace Huber in the system and is probably a little better. In Low A Greensboro, Chick is 6-4 with a 4.08 ERA, but has 112 K's and 27 BB"s in 90.1 IP, great peripherals numbers. I fyou take Huber and Chick as equals, I like Chick a little more, then the Pads essentially traded Valdes for Hansen, a good deal for them I think.

Back soon with more anti-Bowa and anti-Glanville rantings!

It's time for part III of my trade deadline analysis. Up this time? The big Saturday trade, the trade that brought a smile or 70,000 to my face. I am of course talking about the Nomar trade. Here is how it stacks up, piece by piece.

Cubs trade RHP Justin Jones to the Twins for 1B Doug Mientkiewicz
Cubs trade SS Alex Gonzalez, 3B/2B Brendan Harris, and RHP Franics Beltran to the Expos for SS Orlando Cabrera
Cubs trade Cabrera and Mientkiewicz to the Red Sox for SS Nomar Garciaparra and OF Matt Murton

Before taking on the Cubs and Red Sox end of this deal lets take a look at the more minor participants the Twins and Expos. For the Twinkies I really like this deal. Forget for moment that Doug Mientkiewicz is name player who first came up with the Twins as they were starting to end their decade of losing. Forget for a moment all the Web Gems that Dougie Misspelling has had on Baseball Tonight. Dougie M is currently hitting .230/.342/.365 as a 1B. Now Minkie is better than that as his .300/.393/.450 line last year proves. However, to go along with Minkie's struggles at the plate this year, 23 year old Justin Morneau has proven he deserves to play everyday. Morneau is a future All-Star who may very well have 400 or so Home Runs in his bat from here on out. No matter how good a defensive 1B Minkie is, you don't play a guy slugging .365 at 1B when you can play a younger guy who should slug around .500. Add to that Minkie is owed about $8 mil the nest two seasons and this deal may very well be addition by subtraction. That the Cubs got Jones, who baseball America ranked as the Cubs 2nd best prospect in midseason, is just icing on the cake.

I like this deal form the Expos vantage point as well. Cabrera was a free agent to be, in dealing him they got a replacement who will also be a free agent, meaning they don't have to pay him after this year, a big selling point for les Expos. In addition to Alex Gonzalez, who at .217/.241/.365 is no great shakes, Omar Minaya picked up two intriguing prospects in Brendan Harris and Francis Beltran. Beltran, 24, has 40 K's in 35 IP in Chicago's bullpen this year. He has walked 22 guys so his control is a little off but I think he has a good career as a set-up man in front of him. Harris has hit .311/.353/.531 at AAA Iowa this season after a few good season prior to that. He will step in right away at 3B for Montreal and may very well become their best 3B since Tim Wallach. Now you may be asking why didn't the Expos just wait out the year with Cabrera, then offer him arbitration, have him sign with another team, and get two high draft picks? Well, first of all there is no guarantee that Montreal would have offered him arb, I mean they didn't offer arb to Vlad Guerrero. Also Harris and Beltran may be better than whomever would have been taken in the draft, AND their signing bonuses have already been paid by the Cubs, so they may very well be cheaper.

The Cubs gave up three prospects with value, but neither of the three are as highly regarded as Huber or Kazmir (the guys the Mets gave up to get a few mediocre starting pitchers), they dealt from strength when they dealt Jones and Beltran (The Cubs have plaenty of young pitching with Prior, Zambrano, Guzman, Haggerty, etc.) and they got a superstar in return. There is nothign wrong with giving up decent prospects so long as you get something good in return. And Nomar is a good player to get in return. The Cubs have been trotting out Gonzalez, Rey Ordonez and Ramon Martinez at SS all season long, so getting Nomar and his .319/.364/.494 line will help out a ton. Nomar is no great shakes in the field but neither was Martinez and none of Nomar predecessors have hit in years. The Cubs now have to be considered the favorites for the Wild Card as they have a decent bat at every single position. This doesn't mean that Moises Alou, for instance, is a good player but he is a good hitter. That lineup along with the Cubs rotation also makes them a team that no one would possibly want to face in October.

Now onto the Red Sox. When I heard of this deal I was riding back from the Meadowlands after watching Manchester United lso to AC Milan on penalty kicks. All of which is a convoluted way of saying that when I heard of this trade I though that there must have been another angle. Up until this point Red Sox GM Theo Epstein has been nearly flawless. He picked up Mark Bellhorn and David Ortiz for practically free, he traded a barrel of sludge for Curt Schilling, etc. etc. But this cannot be considered a good deal for the Red Sox no matter how you slice it.

The Red Sox official stance is that this trade will improve their defense with Dougie Misspelling at 1B, Cabrera at SS, and Dave Roberts (went over that trade yesterday) in RF until Trot Nixon returns. However, Minkie is a huge downgrade offensively when compared to Millar or Ortiz. Roberts simply doesn't have enough power to be a corner outfielder, and Cabrera's .243/.294/.338 is way off of what Nomar was producing. This trade may make an offense that may have been baseball's best going into the season into a weakness when compared with the likes of the Yankees and Angels, teams they will have to beat to make it to the World Series.

Which is another point. The Red Sox are in a pennant race. Sure they are 9 games back of the Yankees right now but they are only 1/2 game out of the Wild Card right now with another team 1/2 game behind them. Now is not the time to unload a brooding superstar. At least not unless you can get something comparable in return, and the Red Sox did not get anything comparable in return. The difference between Nomar and Cabrera for the rest of this saeson may be as big as 2 wins, and hsould be at least 1 win. not insignificant when you are in a pennant race. Sure Nomar has been sluggishin teh field this season and Cabrera is a former Gold Glove winner, but Nomar can hit, Cabrera can't and Cabrera has had back problems that have set his defense off a little.

Why did th Red Sox trade away Nomar Garciaparra? It goes back to Nomar's rejection of the Red Sox 4 year $60 million dollar deal. When the Red Sox countered with a 4 yr. $48 million dollar deal, Nomar was pretty unhappy. Then the Red Sox tried their best to trade for ARod, setting off a chain reaction that would have put Nomar in Chicago with the White Sox, for Magglio Ordonez. From that point on Nomar was supposedly brooding and not very friendly in the clubhouse. Many think that he had quit on the team. Of course I would love to have a player quit on my team if he can hit .320 and slug .500 from the SS position.

Theo Epstein seesm to have flet a lot of presure form the Red Sox faithful, who seemingly had made up their mind that Nomar was hurting the team, no matter how well he played. Honestly, while I have a lot of respect for Theo Epstein, he screred up here. A GM should never let what the general public thinks affect his front office moves. The general public is pretty stupid. The general public wanted Pokey Reese to play everyday, 'nuff said. It is possible that Epstein Massachusetts roots hurt him here. Epstein grew up a Sox fan, which may very well put him in a position to be swayed by what other Sox fans think. Of course I have no evidence for this and ma probably wrong.

And, of course, for the right of giving up one of their three or four best players in a pennant race, the Red Sox gave up a decent prospect in Matt Murton. Drafted last year, Murton is now hitting .301/.372/.452 in High A. In fact Murton may just have been the Sox best prospect prior to this trade. To give him away just clinches that this deal is a bad one for the Red Sox.

Final Analysis: The Cubs may be the big winners here, especialy if they can resign Nomar this offseason. If they make it to the World Series or even *gasp* win it, whatever they traded for Nomar won't matter in the least. The Twins got a prospect in return for getting rid of a semi expensive player they no longer needed. The Expos got a couple of intriguing young players for an overrated defensive speacialist and the Red Sox got said overrated defensive specialist and said unwanted player for a top prospect and a superstar. You decide. This does mean, however, that the Red Sox may no longer be the favorites for the Wildcard. I would have to say that right now the Wild Card standings will go Angels, Rangers, Red Sox. See, it only took me a few weeks to change my midseason predictions. Writing is fun!

Back soon with the rest of the deadline wheeling and dealing.

When it comes to trades...Onward Ho...

Dodgers trade C Paul Lo Duca, RHP Guillermo Mota, and OF Juan Encarnacion to the Marlins for RHP Brad Penny, 1B Hee Seop Choi, and RHP Brian Murphy.

Much like the Mets deal the press is fawning all over Marlins GM Larry Beinfest for making this deal when he is probably the loser here. The Marlins aren't appreciably better in the near term while certainly losing this trade in the long term. Hee Choi is a stud, who is hitting .270/.388/.495 at the age of 25 and probably still has 300-350 home runs left in his bat. To replace Choi the Marlins iwll move Jeff Conine (.274/.334/.418) to 1B from LF and Encarnacion (.234/.288/.415....288! for an outfielder!) will be playing everyday in the outfield. So they are replacing a .305 EQA in their lineup iwth a .241 EQA. Brilliant!

The Marlins did address a few needs with this trade, though. Their catchers have been a serious vortex of suck, so Paul Lo Duca is an upgrade there. However, over the last three seasons Lo Duca has had OPS's of .625 and .681 in August and September, respectively. Lo Duca will need to do better than that to offset the offensive drain of going from Choi to Encarnacion, no matter how bad Ramon Castro, Mark Redman, and Jim Treanor have been. The Marlins also have Josh Willingham, who has hit .276/.435/.568 in AA. It isn't out of the realm of possibility that Willingham would outplay Lo Duca the rest of this season.

The Marlins also needed a bullpen arm pretty bad. Closer Armando Benitez has been great but behind him it has been an adventure, so bad in fact that they actually traded for Billy Koch. To make matters worse Benitez has been complaining of elbow pain and today was placed on the DL. All of this makes getting Guillermo Mota a near must. Mota has been very good this season with an 8-4 record, a 2.14 ERA and 50 K's in 63 IP, all in relief. However, he hasn't been as good as he was last season as his K/BB ration has fallen from 3.8 in 2003 to 1.9 in 2004.

In order to help their bullpen the Marlins weakened their rotation. This season their two most consistent starters ahve been Carl Pavano and Brad Penny. Penny is now a Dodger. A.J. Burnett and Josh Beckett are injury concerns and Dontrelle Willis has either been very good or... ... ... not very good?

It is generally not a very good idea to trade a starter for a middle reliever, or any reliever for that matter. Starters are the more valuable commodities since they pitch 2-3 times as many innings as relievers. Mota has been very good, but Penny has been good as well and I would take Penny's edge in innings over Mota's edge in performance.

So for the Marlins they opened up a hole in their roations to fix a hole in their bullpen (usually a bad idea), upgraded at catcher by obtaining a 32 year old who has a history of being Brent Mayne (more on him later) after the All-Star break, while giving up a future All-Star first baseman. To replace that 1B they may have gotten the worse everyday corner outfielder in the majors, while moving the second worst to 1B. AND they gave up a prospect for the privilege!

For the Dodgers they easily come out winners. Sure there are questions, can Dave Ross play well enough in order to replace LoDuca. Will Wilson Alvarez (whose rotation spot was takent by Penny), Darren Dreifort, and Yhency brazoban pitch well enough to make up for the loss of Mota. But they do essentially upgrade from Encarnacion to Choi (huge) while sticking a 26 year old front of the rotation starter. In the short term they may not be substantially upgraded with this trade but they have won in the long term.

And everything you may read about Lo Duca being the 'heart and soul' of this year's Dodger team. If Lo Duca was such a great leader to the point of being invaluable, why haven't the Dodgers made the playoffs at any point in Paulie's tenure? Chemistry is a winning streak. Chemistry is being in first place. When a team si losing they will get frsutrated with each other, when they are winning, teammates faults get overlooked. You can't jsut create chemistry. Say you have Sodium and Water, they are two chemical compunds that when mixed with other can make some really useful stuff, but just becasue they get along with others doesn't mean they will get along. In fact sodium and water create an explosion when mixed, its pretty cool really. All of which is jsut a long way to say, "pay no heed to clubhouse chemistry when evaluating trades".

Why haven't I mentioned Murphy (the Marlins prospect that went to the Didgers in the deal?) you might be asking. Well this is because he isn't a Dodger anymore. When this deal went down friday night, the rumor was that the Dodgers would be using Penny and others to the Diamondbacks for Randy Johnson. Apparently the D-Backs were asking for Penny, Murphy, Edwin Jackson (one of the top prospects in baseball0 AND another prospect. The Dodgers balked and Johnson is still in Arizona. However...

Dodgers trade Murphy, OF Reggie Abercrombie, and C Koyie Hill to the Diamond backs for C Brent Mayne and CF Steve Finley.

I am not sure why the Dodgers made this trade, but they didn't really lose. Personally I would have balked at this trade and given a full-time job to Jayson Werth, but Finley will get the time. Finley's 23 HR's are the reason that he was traded for but his league average OBP and bad CF defense take away from that power quite a bit. Not to mention that he is moving from a great hitter's park to a great pitcher's park. Don't expect much from Finley. Brent Mayne is nothing more than a backup catcher at this point, but he is a lefty so he may play more than that. Let's hope not for the Dodgers sake.

Koyie Hill is a decent prospect hitting .276/.339/.476 at AAA Las Vegas. He is a littel old for a prospect so his time is now but his power is intrguing for a catcher. Murphy was 6-4 at AA Carolina with a 4.08 ERA but good peripherals, namely 113 K's in 103 IP. For an organization that isn't to deep in young arms, Murphy is just the type of player that the D-Backs need. Abercrombie si a waste of a minor league roster spot, to say nothing of the Major Leagues. Wel taht may be a littel harsh, since Abercrombie si sporting an ISo over .200 in A Ball. Except that he is 24. Remember when I said that Ryan Howard wasnt' a great prospect because he is 24 in AA, 36 home runs be damned? Well Abercrombie is 24 and in A ball and he is slugging about .150 points lower than Howard. There was next to zero chance that Abercrombie would make the Majors under GM Paul Depodesta's watch. He is really inconsequential here.

To round out the picture...

The Dodgers trade OF Dave Roberts to the Red Sox for OF Henri Stanley.

With the acquisitions of Choi and Finley, Roberst was out of a job. He is a good defense outfielder who can get on base if he is hitting .280 or so, with next to zero power. The Red Sox picked him up in their zeal to improve the team defense. Stanley is a minor league veteran who is having a good season at AAA Pawtucket, hitting .299/.383/.470. Stanley could very well help out in the case of injury this season. Roberts is too much of an offensive sieve to help the Red Sox, fortunately for me he may get a lot of playing time.

Final Analysis: The Dodgers deadline would have been better if they hadn't traded for Steve Finley, but they did. They still come out winners since they gained a 25 year old slugging 1B and a 26 year old front of the rotation starter. The Marlins may have filled their holes but they created other ones in order to do so, holes that may even be bigger than the ones they filled. The Diamondbacks got back a few decent players for a couple of old guys and one useless player, but so be it. The Red Sox have me scratching my head (more on this later).

Next up...The big Sunday trade...

It's time for the trade dealine extravaganza that I promised just a few mere hours ago. I Know you weren't able to sleep last night waiting for it, so let's get started.

First, the major trades made this weekend...

Mets trade C Justin Huber to the Royals for 3B Jose Bautista
Mets trade Bautista, RHP Matt Peterson, and 3B/2B Ty Wiggington to Pirates for RHP Kris Benson and IF Jeff Keppinger
Mets trade LHP Scott Kazmir and RHP Joselo Diaz to Devil Rays for RHP Victor Zambrano and RHP Bartolome Fortunato

This is actually two trades, one a Mets, Pirates, Royals three team trade, the other a straight swap between the Devil Rays and the Mets, but I think it will be easier to breakdown as one trade. A trade in which the Mets gave up a number of promising prospects (Kazmir, Huber, and Peterson) for two middle to back of the rotation starters. This in a season in which they are currently 8 games out of first and even further back in the Wild Card. Though to be fair, they were six out at the time the trades were made.

Let's focus first on what the Mets got before ranting about what they gave up. Kris Benson was the first overall pick in the 1996 draft out of Clemson. He has yet to live up to his considerable promise due mainly to Tommy John surgery in 2000. At the time of the deal he was 8-8 with a 4.22 ERA, 83 K's and 44 BB's in 132.1 IP, and 7 home rusn allowed. He has pitched decently this season, with an ERA below 4 in every month but May, when his ERA was over 8. Benson, who turns 30 in November, will be a free agent and probably be able to command 8-10 million dollars this offsaeson.

Victor Zambrano was probably the staff ace of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, though the previous statement says more about the D-Rays than it does about Zambrano. He isnt' pitching too badly this season with a 9-7 record, 4.43 ERA and 7.66 K/9. The bad part, however, is that he is also walking over 6 per 9IP with 96 walks in 128 IP. For anyone not familiar with these numbers that is just plain awful. The high number of K's shows that Zambrano has good stuff and potential, but his lack of control is startling. Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson is one of the best in the business and there is some belief that he may be able to help the converted infielder. Zambrano will turn 29 in four days but won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2007 season. In other words he best days will probably come as a Met.

Mets GM Jim Duquette says that this trade isn't just for the here and now (and being 8 games out it had better not be), where they will admittedly have a deep rotation, but for the future as well. This is contingent, of course, on the Mets resigning Kris Benson. If they do resign him they will have Benson from age 30 until either age 32 or 33, depending on whether they agree to a three or four year pact. Zambrano will be a Met through his age 31 season, a season in which he will turn 32 in August. While the Met rotation is currently a very oldonewith Al Leiter, Tom Glavine, and Steve Trachsel doing most of the heavy lifting, but Zambrano and Benson aren't exactly young pups. In fact it could be argued that they are not going to get any better than they are right now, which makes you wonder why the Mets would trade away a passle of top prospects for them at this point of the season. Couldnt' they have signed Benson in the offseason anyway?

Keppinger is an intersting prospect who was hitting .304/.384/.409 while playing 2B for the AA Altoona Curve, but he is 24 so time is running out for him to have a career. Fortunato looks like a decent relief prospect with 54 K's in 44 IP, 21BB, 9 saves, a 4-3 record, and a 2.42 ERA. However, minor league relievers rarely turn into much in the majors. For instance, Trevor Horrman, Rob Nen, Eric Gagne, John Smoltz, and Mariano Rivera were all starters at the beginning of their careers. However, Fortunato may become a valuable relief arm for a few seasons, just don't expect a relief ace. Neither of these two players are very consequential however, Benson and Zambrano are the reasons these deals went down.

In order to pry Zambrano away from the Devil Rays, the Mets parted with one of the game's five best pitching prosepcts. Prior to this year I would have rated Edwin Jackson, Zack Grienke, and Cole hamels ahead of Scott Kazmir, and that is about it, maybe Joe Blanton. Since then Jackson and Hamels have mixed injuries and success, Blanton has been good but not great, while Grienke is currently in the Royals starting rotation. Right now there is agood chance that the Mets first pick in 2002 will open the season as the game's best pitching prospect.

Why? He is 20 years old and in his first taste of AA has struck out 29 in 26 IP with 9 BB's and a 1.73 ERA. He struck out 51 in 50 IP in High A. In over 200 IP in his pro career, Scott Kazmir has averaged over a stikeout per inning, a phenomenal rate, while being young for his league at every stop. Kazmir isnt' tall, roughly the size of Billy Wagner, but throws 95 MPH heat to go along with some nice breaking stuff. As always, 20 year old pitchers come with major injury concerns, as Phillie fans have learned with Cole hamels this season, but right now he is on track to be a future ace. Would you give up a guy who has a decent shot at becoming the ace of your team for the next decade for three and a half years of a mid rotation starter with control problems? Sure, it is possible that Peterson staightens out Zambrano and that Kazmir has labrum surgery at some juncture but that isnt' the point. Kazmir is one fo the game's premier prospects, probably top 10 right now, to give him up for a guy of Zambrano's stature is a crime against your teams' future. The very future the Mets thought they were helping by trading for Zambrano. Now that, not Ed Wade, is incompetence Phillie fans. If Kazmir were to be traded the only pitcher in the market that I would have given him up for is Randy Johnson, who was not going to waive his no trade claus for Queens. I mean would you want to go to Queens?

Joselo Diaz, a converted catcher with some serious heat, is intriguing but a project nonetheless. Despite 90 K's in 83 IP, his Zambrano like control (70 BB's as well) has given him a 4-7 record and 5.18 ERA for AA Binghamtom. He is a decent guy to take a flyer on and a good player to get as a throw in, but don't expect him to be terrorizing AL East hitters anytime soon. Projects to be a bullpen guy in my estimation.

I can't say that I disagree with giving up Matt Peterson and Ty Wigginton for Kris Benson. Peterson has decent stuff, a 3.27 ERA in AA, and pr0jects to be a mid rotation starter. He has a decent future, but a bird in hand, blah, blah, blah. Wigginton is 26 and is currently having his best Major League season, hitting .273/.327/.475 with 12 HR and 42 RBI while splitting time between 2B and 3B. He should be the Pirates starting third baseman for the rest of this season and probably the next one as well. This is the first time that Ty has shown this type of power and it isn't too likely to be a trend, but he is a decent guy to have to bridge the gap between what you ahve now and waht you have for the future. This is exactly what the MEts used him for, playing him until uber-prospect David Wright was ready then traded him for something they felt they needed in Benson.

No, the problem that I have with the Benson trade is the bit that includes the Royals. Trading Justin Huber for Jose Bautista is dumb. No other way to put it, dumb. Don't get me wrong Bautista doesnt' look like a bad prospect (his #4 PECOTA comparable is Jay Bell) but this is a guy that wasn't protected in the Rule V draft and has also played for Baltimore and Tampa this season. The Priates are his fourth team in a year and in none of the other transactions in which he was involved was the price to get him anywhere near Justin Huber. Huber is a 22 year old catcher who hit .271/.414/.487 in AA before getting a promotion to AA right before his trade. Generally catchers who can take walks and hit for power are very valuable commodities and Huber is not an exception to this rule. The catch with Huber, besides his hailing from Australia, a country that has not failed to dissapoint where baseball players are concerned, is that there is some concern about his ability to remain at catcher. Huber is a big man, standing at 6'5", and big men dont' spend much time behind the plate, the wear and tear on their knees is usually too much. Guys who have long successful careers behind the plate are generally players build like Yogi Berra and Pudge Rodriguez. However, Huber has shown that he has the bat to survive a move to either 1B or the OF, a la Jayson Werth. Assuming that he can stay behind the plate, Dioner Navarro and Jeff Mathis' struggles may make him the best catching prospect in baseball right now. And they gave him up for a player that the Pirates, Orioles and Devil Rays gave away for next to nothing this season?

One more angle I would like to hit where this trade is concerned is if the Pirates could have gotten Huber. Granted, they currently have Jason Kendall in the majors and Ryan Doumit in the minors, but Kendall is being paid a lot of money and Huber is a top flight prospect. In other words how did the Royals end up in this trade? had they been calling the Mets askign about Huber (for maybe Miek Sweeney?) and ended up robbing the Mets? Or did Pirates Gm David Littlefield say to mets GM Jim Duquette, "Hey, we are very close on a deal, get that Bautista guy from the Royals and we are set". Sure, the Pirates aren't too deep at 3B in their organization and Bautista may very well become a player, maybe Littlefield felt remorse over nto protecting Bautista in teh Rule V draft. But did he even ask for Huber? To me this is very intersting and I woudl ove to hear what David Littelfield has to say about this.

Final Analysis: The Devil Rays are clear winners here (never thought I would ever say that), getting a top prospect for a mid rotation guy with control problems. The Royals gave up a guy without a future in their organizaton for another top prospect, theya re winners as well. I dont' think the Pirates did too badly but considering the prosepcts the Mets threw around friday night they shouldnt' have come away with the third best one when giving up the best player. teh MEts are clear losers. Sure, things coudl turn out alright for them but baseballis allabout playing the percentages and that is clearly not what the Mets did here. You don't mortgage your future without getting superstar talent or a realistic shot at the World Series in return. The Mets got neither.

Due to the length of theseposts I think that I will be doing this in installments. Next up, what the Dodgers did.

Hooray Bullet Points!

After a week of silence I was getting worried that this might be the least active trade deadline of my memory, which, to be fair, isn't very long. However, Firday and Saturday were huge with Nomar Garciaparra being traded and the Dodgers making one hell of a trade with the Marlins. Either way i will be doing a bullet point post today.

• Tomorrow I will have a big post with my trade analysis but for now I must say taht it was really weird seeing Nomar Garciaparra not in a Red Sox uni. For the entirety of the man's eight year career I have rooted against him. I never in my life I had the thought, "Gee, I sure as hell hope that Nomar gets a hit here." And while it was no different otday with the Cubs playing against the Phading Phillies, there will soon be a day when I will actually be rooting for Nomar. It just feels weird to write that.

• As mentioned a sentence or two prior, the Phillies are fading quickly. They are now 5.5 games back of the Braves in the NL East and even further back of the Padres in the Wild Card. Why? Well for one they jsut can't seem to beat teh Marlins. For as good as the Phillies are, adn I still believe them to be teh most talented team in the NL East, they cannot make the playoffs with a performance against a division opponent akin to theirs versus the Fish. They play another six games against Florid and are currently 1-12 agaisnt them this season including the four game debacle this past week provided. You have to be the '98 Yankees against the rest of the league to overcome 1-12 agaisnt one of your major competitors.

• As a follow up on my latest post about David Bell, maybe I shoudl have mentioned that David's father, Buddy, was a regualr third baseman until the age of 35. The only season in which he did not slug .400 from ages 27 to 35, was his age 33 season, a year he split with the Reds and Rangers. Now while I have absolutely zero evidence that athletic aging patterns are hereditary, nor that David Bell would have gotten said hereditary pattern from his dad, this is info that should have been a part of the article. Athletic talent is something that can be passed thorugh genes, at least that is what the anecdotal evidence suggests, and David does seem to have the Bell baseball genes. Either way it may be evidence that Bell will have a better career from ages 30+ than he did from ages 20-29 like his father. Thsi could make the Phillies four year deal with him look better than it does now. Then again it could be nothing, but it should at least be a part of the discussion.

Back tomorrow with my trade deadline extravaganza!